Tuesday, May 24, 2005

5/17/05

OK, the last two days have been very good to me. Monday was a banger day that I was just fading away, as was today was very similar. The thing that was important today was about 2:30 they tried to push the market up just before the close but they couldn't hold it there... it faded back down and now it is continuing to fall in after hours trading. There are signs of weakness all over. I am still net short. Looking for another down day tomorrow.

Trader X

Friday, May 20, 2005

118900

Did you notice the we kept hitting 118900 and it just wouldn't break through? I have noticed that the more a resistance level it hit and the market just stops there the further the market will go when it breaks through... and it will always break through. It finally broke down to 118800. Yesterday was a topping day and this morning it was funny to see the premarket open when the ES spiked just before the open to 119300, a new high over yesterday's 119275. As soon as the market opened the market reversed all the gains and then some... almost as if it was saying "Fools!!!" for the people that were buying this morning. This will be an interesting day.

Trader X

5/20/05 option expire Friday

Today I get paid for all the short may options that are expiring! I need that money... got a mortgage to pay you know!

I am net short from yesterday... my breakeven is 118900. My plan is to cut my position in 1/2 this morning before 11:00 and then hold the rest of that trade until next week as a longer term trade. That's a great one trade that I agree with. Ragetrader and I are both taking this longer term trade, and yes, Rage, we need to make sure to keep our short-term and long-term stuff separate in our minds. I too have a tendency to take off a longer-term trade just because I can capture a short-term gain.

Yesterday's action was amazing. I just wanted to reiterate again that compared to the 3 previous days, it was much weaker and looked like market topping to me.

So far this morning the market has been weaker... future have come off all night and are now at 118900... my breakeven. I would really like to make my profits early and then take the rest of the day off.

Trader X

Thursday, May 19, 2005

5/19/05 Star Wars

Revenge of the Sith comes out today. Just noting that for historical purposes.

Today, I started out short and covered. Went short near the top of the 3rd impulse wave and covered to get back to breakeven.

Today there have been 3 impulse waves but the B retracements have been very large as well. This denotes weakness because in the last 2 days the pullbacks were basically horizontal. Today the pullbacks are almost the lenght of the A impulse. I should be able to fade this on the upside at least and to a lessor extent to the downside.

Remember the article regarding ABC waves that I read 2 days ago? Well, it was staring me right in the face but I didn't see it until Rockstar clued me in! Thanks Rock!

Trader X.

Wednesday, May 18, 2005

20ma entry

Sure enough the price came back down to the 20ma again and I didn't take the trade. Good think too because even though it was higer at some point it wasn't high enough to make it worth my efforts and it was a break-even play +_ a little. The more times it retest the 20ma the less likely it is to continue on the run at the same rate.

Trader X

PS. Sometime is is best to just walk away!

wrong all day long

Yes, I have been. Clearly the market has more strenght than I ever gave it credit for! Wow! OK, I've switched to trend mode but several things bother me. If you get into the trend later in the day the chances of it switching are much greater. I fear that will happen today so unless the setup is perfect I won't take it. The first crossover after the trend is established is the best % trade, the second is a lower % trade and on and on... we would be at the 3rd setup if we hit the 20 ma from here. I just hate to enter this late in the day. I might just sit it out. What's important is that I will do no more damage to myself today. 3 steps.

ID the market.
Pick your setup
execute flawlessly!

Trader X

S/R

Support and Resistance... as my friend Rockstar keeps telling me I need to look at those more often. I have been failing in the last couple of weeks. Here goes.

SR line at 118350 and 118650, after that 119650. 117300,116900,116500 on the low side. What I need to do is have those written down in front of me so that I know where they are everyday.

We did blow up again so I took my trade off. I am short again at 118300, thinking that it won't go thru the resistance line there.

Trader X

5/18/05 open

The high of the first bar served as the high until 9:21. We had several Tick attacks but they couldn't pierce it! Even the one just now retreated. I do the the lows are higher but the highs are not. I would view this as a double top. I am now short, but I expect it will be a while until the weakness ends... if it does and I am right. If it blows through those prices then we may be in for another run, however, if I'm right we are seeing a huge amount of high tick and the market isn't making new highs... denotes heaviness, as the greatone would say.

Tuesday, May 17, 2005

end of day

My last trade was in the money and I had to leave, came back and the market had reallied so I took my loss and finished the day down. I will take the trade off next time before I leave for 15 minutes!

Trader X

5/17/05 am

The opening trade would have been good for 1.5 points. But I didn't trade it. I did fade the 9:00 turn for 1/2 point but I should have held on longer because it was worth at least 3 points. I went long at 9:38. I took the trade off at breakeven and it would have been good for 3 points as well. I am now short at 116500. Stop at 1167 and limit at 1162. Unlike the others I will let this one ride.

Trader X

Monday, May 16, 2005

12:45

the market seemed a little slow so I moved my limit to 116275 and it hit my price. Then of course it rallied to my original price. That's OK. Probably my one and only trade for the day. It's another day in the + column and I will take it. I will spend the rest of the day researching and playing guitar!

Trader X

5/16/05 10:45am

With the market in an uptrend and no entries to be had, except the opening range trade which I missed, I finally went long at 10:45 when we pulled back to below the 20ma. 116075. 2.5 stop in place and 3 point profit obj. set. This is my modified 9/30 setup that can be found on this website.... http://www.efuturevision.com/ehomej.php3

Another very good website that Rock and I just found is... http://www3.sympatico.ca/mmaker/

Good luck and happy trading........


Trader X

Friday trades

Were horrible. I was in an emotional revenge trading mode and blew all weeks profits and then some. Late in the PM I just kept going long and getting stopped out. I think it happened twice before I finally just turned off the computer and walked away! What did I learn. Well a couple of things actually. 1. I was able to see what I was doing in my minds eye and stop before I really got myself in trouble. 2. I learned that it is OK to get up and walk away. I did much better than I had in the past when I was in that mood. What I'm trying to say is that my winning days are becoming much more frequent and my losing days are less frequent and less money. I will take that as a sign in improvement. It does seem that I am just hovering above and below that breakeven line! Some weeks up and others down. The nice thing is that even though my equity curve isn't going up steadily, it isn't bleeding like it once was either. As long as my option trading is paying the bills, I should be able to stay in this game much longer now. I will take all of this as success!

Trader X

Thursday, May 12, 2005

Pm trades

What the hell am I doing! I am so stupid that I almost put a profitable day at risk this afternoon. After having a great morning, and almost doubling my daily goal, I try to add to it this afternoon. Nothing wrong with that, I should try to make more on those days that are working for me to offset those days that aren't. But I should do it in a conservative manner. I pushed it to hard this afternoon. I was trying to catch falling knives! Yes, that's exactly it, FALLING KNIVES!!!!

The market starts it's decline right at 12:30, takes a breather at 1:00 and then continues until 1:30, and it takes another breather before it gradually continues it's selloff again at 2:00. I tried twice to buy as the market stopped it's declines and tried to rally. Both times I lost a little... not enough to ruin my whole day but enough to piss me off. Here's the kicker. I KNOW BETTER!! Yes I do know better. NEVER, EVER, EVER should I try to buy into a decline or sell into a rally, especially when the trend has been intact all day AND it was late in the day, my worst time to trade. In fact, I should just not trade after lunch! Period!

Like I said I still made money and the only reason why is because I knew what I was doing was wrong and I stopped before I could do any real damage. I hope to learn something from this.

Trader Pissed Off!

AM trades

I had 2 other trades today before my last trade I need to tell you about. I went short at 9:11 at 117175 and had to cover at 117325. I think I went short because it rallied to the 20ma and had a high tick count but the 20 hadn't really turned over yet so I should have waited. After the market turned I went short again at 10:21 at 117125 because the 20ma turned and we rallied up to it. The market rallied and I waited after a high tick count bar and then covered at 117100. I didn't like the trades because the stochs were still climbing up while I was short. I decided to get out while I could. The market did fall off a little but then rallied again! I would have been stopped out. As the market rallied we had a high tick count and the stochs crossed, a high probability setup, so I went short again at 117300 at 11:02. The next bar we declined and I hit my limit of 117000. Took my profits and ran! I am ahead of my goals for the day. I think I'm going to cut the grass and then see what happens this afternoon..

Trader X

9:20

the market peaked and I went short but I missed the high bigtime! Short at 117275. Looking for 3 points or until the market changes again. I just waited and I got 3 points as the market went thru 116975 and kept on going!

Trader X

5/12/05 open

The opening bar closed and the next bar broke to the high side. Went long at 117300 and closed it at 117375. Looks like we may trade sideways today. Wmt disapointed but the retail sales were better than expected so the 2 sort of offset each other. It will be a fight today.

Trader X

Wednesday, May 11, 2005

5/11/05 a good morning again

On the open I went short after we broke thru the low of the first 5 min bar. Took that for 2 points. Then I just sat there and fought the trend until I had lost the 2 points! ARRRrrrgggg! Frustrating... Then I waited until the market came back up to the 20 ma at about 11:00 and went short. Shortly after that they evacuated the White House and it was good for 4 points on the downside. We hit the 1158 resistance level and bounced up very hard... and the market is continuing to run off that bottom. Run very nicely indeed. I will be cautious the rest of the day. Had a convo with RockStar this morning after I hit my goal for the day and realized just how much help he has been even if he didn't know it. From a mental point of view it is good to have someone to bounce ideas off of and to bitch to when all hell breaks loose. He is the one responsible for sending me several ideas that have made a monumental impact on my trading in just the last 2 weeks. The NQ's site http://www.trading-naked.com/Articles_and_Reprints.htm has been a real help as I've mentioned earlier!

Trader X

Tuesday, May 10, 2005

5/10/05 I nailed it!

As you know the trend days are the ones that have really messed me up because I always try to fade it. Well, I have been reading about some simple trend following methods and today I accomplished several things. 1. I was able to ID the trend. 2. I was able to execute a trade in the right direction. 3. I was able to add a position at the right time. 4. I got my limit price and left the trade!

When the market opened below the 20ma I shorted a position at 117250. The market started going lower so I waited until it hit the 20 again about 9:30 and added another short at 117150. My limit buyback was 116950 which it hit a few minutes later. Good trade, good technique, good profit.

I'm done for the day.......

Trader X

Thursday, May 05, 2005

closing note for the day

http://www.trading-naked.com/Articles_and_Reprints.htm

My fellow trader Rockstar and I have been perusing this above website for the couple of weeks and we have joined the Yahoo group. Let me tell you that this group and site have some of the best free trading stuff on the web period! Bar none, that I have found.

Under Mastering Self the second article called "Secrets to Emotion Free Trading" is one of the best I have ever read. I intend to reread it every few weeks to make sure that I stay focused on the major concepts discussed. This article has made a huge difference in my thinking while I'm trading. READ IT!!

Trader X

GM

Wow, There was a volatility spike due to GM and I survived! I finally made money on my short and then the market kept tanking due to GM's downgrade. Well I thought it had stopped, twice, and I went long, only to have the market continue to tank. Finally I found the bottom and rode it back up enough to get back to breakeven for the day... and I do mean break even. After I closed out my profitable long I hit the equity update button and it said "0". Amazing!

I had no business trying to trade that but I got lucky!

Trader X

PS

AM

covered my short at a 1/2 point profit when the market stared gaining strenght again. It rallied and I went short at 117925. The highs have not been higher and the tick count has been progressively lower as well. Stoch crossovers have also been lower. There is still strenght there but I will trade the little dips until it breaks out again.

Trader X

5/5/05 Cinco de Mayo

is not the Mexican Independence day for those of you that want to know. It celebrates the win of a battle over the French while the Mexicans were out-numbered 2-1. Or should I say the French were out-numbered 1/2? That's what Mark Haines on CNBC says anyway.

OK, my opening trade didn't work but I exited fairly fast. Market had a high tick count and the stochs crossed just after 9:00 so I am short at 117850. Market then dropped and has been trading sideways since then.

Trader X

5/4/05

I only had a couple of trades yesterday and was about break-even. It was as trend day and since I really don't have a method to trade those yet, I decided not to lose money like I normally would. I was above the 20ma most of the afternoon which was my signal to not do anything. I am learning because I would have been trading like mad that trend as short as a week ago... and losing money.

Trader X

PS. I will learn a trend trading technique sometime but for now it is enough to be able to ID the type of market I am not prepared to trade.... that is a huge WIN for me since trying to trade those days is what has always killed me before.

Tuesday, May 03, 2005

1:40

I sold one and then another a few minutes later at about 116675 for both. The Tick was very high for 2 bars and it was falling as was the price, also the stochs were very near the peak and close to crossing. I waited just a few minutes because there is a tendency for the market to start falling before the stochs cross over in a fast market (this was fast after the fed meeting) I waited until we had a close that was lower than the last bar close to tell me that the market had atleast taken a pause and at most was turning. That was my setup. I covered 3 points lower and the market has just kept falling! I have made double my desired profits for the day and it was the first good day of trading in a long time. I'm going to stop and relish the moment while I cut my grass!

Trader X

Fed

Before I went to lunch I was long at 116250 due to the stochs cross and a ma resistance line. The market was a little weak but still at breakeven before I left so I followed my rules and took the trade off. The Fed just announce and as usual the market goes in sane up and down. It would have stopped me out at a loss for sure. That is two trades today that instead of being stopped out I took them off as soon as the dynamics changed and saved myself from being underwater. As far as the rest of the day is concerned I have no idea where it's going but rest assured I will be cautious. I'm learning. HEY ROCKSTAR! I'M LEARNING!!!!!!!!

Trader X

5/3/05 open to 10:30

I was short for about 1/2 a point from 116350 to 116300. I closed the trade out when the stochs crossed and the market has been higher since. I'll take my 1/2 point and run. I am being much more diligent about getting out of trades when they are just going sideways or an indicator moves against me. Divergence my friend, is what I need to look at. Market sideways and the stochs cross on a short position, GET OUT NOW!!!! Dont' wait to cross go or try to get $200! I was just waiting like a doe in the headlights hoping that the market would continue in my direction and it would take what little profits I may have had or a little loss and turn them into a larger loss! It was time to stop just sitting there. I have learned something here... all I can do as a trader is react to what the market is doing. And if it has stopped doing what I thought it would do then GET OUT and say NEXT!!!! Got it? NEXT!

I am setting a much smaller goal for my daily profits... $150 a day or 3 eminis points on the sp. That's it. I'm not pushing it anymore. I will only take high probability trades with no emotion. When my indicators change while I'm in a trade I will GET OUT and say NEXT! I will not trade after 1:30. I will only close pre-existing positions. That's it. I will live by these until I have am successful and then I will expand my horizons.

Failure is not nearly as frightening as regret!

Trader X.

PM 5/2

Well, I was wrong once again. Market rallied and kept on going til the close. On to the next day

Trader X

Monday, May 02, 2005

Lower lows and lower highs

the downtrend has been established for today due to lower highs and lower lows. I will only take shorts for the rest of the day.

Trader X

stopped out

I was stopped out below the 200ma. I probably won't go long again today unless we straddle the 200 the rest of the day.

Trader X

12:10

You might be asking why I am long if the market has been weak. We have defended the 200ma and now we are also using the 20 as a support. Ticks have been on avg above 0 and the Trin is about where we opened, neutral. So I used the Stochs as the entry and the 200 and 20ma as support. My stop is now up to 115900. 12:30 is a pivot time so I will hang in there until then. Stochs have turned down but 200 is supporting us. I'm not looking for much on this trade. 116175

noon

My opening long was good only for 1/2 point before the stochs crossed over. Good thing I took my small profits and ran because we have been weak since. I shorted at 116325 for three points and now I am long, avg cost 116050. Market doesn't look to be very strong today so I am looking for an exit.

5/2/05

The great one thinks there is a resistance point at 1163, so I will short there if we get there. market seems to be bumping agains that resistance point. Still looking for the opening bar trade.

Trader X

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