Thursday, February 24, 2005
2/24/05 OK, it's no as easy as I thought....
The last 3 weeks have been horrible! Yes, I am now losing money. Why? Well let me tell you!
I can't get myself to buy into the upward trends like I was selling into the downward trends before. I need to start using the Tick and Trin indicators to identify whether the day is trending up, down or sideways.
If the tick is consistently above 0-400 then the trend is up. If this is the case and even if the trin is slightly above 1, say to 1.2 or below the trend can still be up. The consistent tick count is a good indicator.
Assuming that this is the case then I must remember to sell on any weakness... It may not even have to be a -1000 tick. For some reason, you just don't see many of them. The buying seems to be coordinated but the selling doesn't. -600 may be enough. I should look for 50% retracements after an upswing and buy those dips. I should use the Fib numbers of about 1/3, 1/2, and 2/3 for my buys and stops. I have to have a new rule that if the tick is usually above 0 then I will never sell even if there is a spike!
OK. I will follow that.
Trader X
I can't get myself to buy into the upward trends like I was selling into the downward trends before. I need to start using the Tick and Trin indicators to identify whether the day is trending up, down or sideways.
If the tick is consistently above 0-400 then the trend is up. If this is the case and even if the trin is slightly above 1, say to 1.2 or below the trend can still be up. The consistent tick count is a good indicator.
Assuming that this is the case then I must remember to sell on any weakness... It may not even have to be a -1000 tick. For some reason, you just don't see many of them. The buying seems to be coordinated but the selling doesn't. -600 may be enough. I should look for 50% retracements after an upswing and buy those dips. I should use the Fib numbers of about 1/3, 1/2, and 2/3 for my buys and stops. I have to have a new rule that if the tick is usually above 0 then I will never sell even if there is a spike!
OK. I will follow that.
Trader X
Thursday, February 03, 2005
2/3/05 I am making money now!
Sorry it's been a while since I've blogged but I have been making too much friggin money! I am up to 5-20 eminis and I am doing those Tick trades to the tune of about $500 to $2000 every day. I haven't had a losing day in two weeks now! When the Tick gets above 800 or so I will sell 5 eminis and then if it goes to 900 another 5 lot and then 1000 is another. I am getting usually 2 or 3 of these trades a day. There is one usually about 9:00 when the institutions come in the market. That is usually my first trade. I set a stop about 3-6 points away and my profit objective is 1-3 points. I use the closer stops and lower profits for the 800 level and go higher from there. I let the market tell me how much volatility there is and I adjust my profits and stops accordingly. I really need to start paying attention to other trades like the Range trade (market closes in the upper or lower 1/3 of range) and some bonds trades. I only hope that my success continues with these trades. I will say that there haven't been very many - tick trades... I think almost everyone I've done has been a + 800 or more. I have only seen the spurts of buying and then the drops in the markets but the Tick hasn't really dropped that much... -400 to 600. Not many in the -800 range. I will say that the tick trade may not work as well in an upward trending market. Also I've learned not to trade the Last day of a quarter and the first day of a month due to window dressing and money inflows.
Trader X
Trader X
